The Future Market for Gasoline, Diesel and Hybrid Powertrains

Authors

Dr. Jan Dannenberg, Mercer Management, Consulting

Year

2006

Summary

By 2015, hybrid power trains will account for eleven percent of the global market. They are the platform technology of the near future and the starting point for alternative power train concepts, from electric propulsion to fuel cells. Car makers and suppliers of components to the industry are currently trying to make up the ground they have lost to Toyota and Honda. Over the long-term, the fuel cell will be the winner among automotive power trains since it is the power train technology which uses energy most efficiently: Depending on the specific technology in question, a fuel cell vehicle will consume up to 30 percent less primary energy than a vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine. This is one of the main reasons why the fuel cell has the best environmental performance of all power trains. However, problems still remain to be resolved in terms of production, infrastructure and the input of hydrogen. It is likely therefore that fuel cell technology will make only a staged breakthrough from 2015 onwards or even later. So what will the engine of the near future look like, and what are the most promising avenues for development?

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