27th Aachen Colloquium Automobile and Engine Technology 2018
Challenges and Opportunities in Lithium-Ion Battery Supply
Authors
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart, Dr. Christian-Simon Ernst, Manuel Yoon, Gero Pieper,
Roland Berger GmbH, Munich
Summary
The demand for batteries from the automotive industry sector is the main driver for the future Lithium-Ion battery market. The cell manufacturing market is dominated by a few large players from Asia, with China getting more important.
Cell costs will level out around 75 EUR/kWh in the 2nd half of next decade. Increased volumetric energy density is the main cost reduction lever, but manufacturing processes will also provide further cost reduction opportunities. Process technology
development will scale volume of cathode active material processing units, causing a severe cost disadvantage risk to small sized players.
Overall, demand for (battery-grade) Nickel, Cobalt and Lithium will increase significantly. Therefore price risks due to high concentration levels for raw and refined materials and political country risks need to be mitigated, but supply shortages are unlikely. As a consequence recycling is getting increasingly important – from a cost perspective, as well as from the perspective of securing raw material supply.
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