Unlocking the Potential of eFuels – Market Volumes & Success Factors in Existing Fleets

Authors

L. Mauler, C. Prié, Porsche Consulting GmbH, Stuttgart / Munich

Year

2025

Print Info

Production/Publication ÖVK

Summary

In the global effort to combat climate change, over 180 countries have committed to the Paris Climate Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This commitment places significant pressure on carbon-intensive sectors such as mobility. Scenarios for meeting climate targets highlight a substantial increase in the use of battery electric vehicles in on-road mobility by 2050. However, they also point out the continued relevance of internal combustion engines in existing fleets across on-road, maritime, and aviation mobility in the coming decades. Consequently, liquid fuel demand in the transport sector is expected to remain considerable beyond 2040. eFuels present a promising solution for reducing fleet CO2 emissions associated with liquid fuel use. The European Union has already established regulatory instruments to drive the demand for eFuels in the coming decades. From an industrial feasibility perspective, maximizing the eFuels ramp-up could enable the phase-out of fossil fuels earlier than planned, thereby accelerating carbon savings in mobility fleets. According to industry announcements, eFuels production is expected to grow significantly until 2030, with new players and regions entering the market. Various fuel types are planned to ramp up, with the potential to serve all mobility sectors. However, current projects still face challenges that prevent them from being successfully executed. Robust ramp-up strategies involving producers, offtakers, and investors need to be developed to overcome these challenges and unlock their full potential. If their ramp-up is accelerated, eFuels might possibly – depending on regulatory efforts – replace fossil fuels before 2050.

ISBN

978-3-9504969-4-9

DOI

https://doi.org/10.62626/36dk-wc9y Copy link

Order Members Login