Evaluation of the effects of trends on vehicle concepts based on a forecast of travel demand

Autoren

Peter Lukas Peters, Dr.-Ing. Rainer Demuth, BMW Group – Total Vehicle Development;
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. h.c. Dieter Schramm, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Lehrstuhl für Mechatronik

Jahr

2019

Zusammenfassung

Today, vehicle concepts are developed on the basis of technical design premises derived from attributes such as e.g. the electrical range in the case of electrified vehicles. For the respective positioning of the concept, the customer requirements of the relevant target group determined by market research and the competitive comparison are decisive. Technological trends (e.g. fully automated driving; FAD) and business model innovations (e.g. on demand mobility; ODM) have the potential to change the mobility behavior of users and thus the characteristics of vehicle concepts. Furthermore, due to these trends, the modal values of mobility, as for example the individual acceleration behavior or comfort demand, may become less important for selected customer use
cases. This is especially the case for demand-oriented ODM services which will gain a new degree of flexibility through FAD vehicle concepts. Therefore, in the future, the conventional approach of determining design premises for total vehicle concepts could no longer be appropriate alone.
The modeling of the effects of disruptive trends on the individual mobility behavior is currently not documented on the basis of vehicle sensor data logs, in contrast to mobility data from travel surveys. In the field of transport research, the effects of FAD and new ODM services on mobility behavior have been examined for several years. The introduction of FAD mode alternatives is expected to have a significant impact on mobility (Trommer et al. 2016). The overall approach presented in this paper focuses on deriving objective design premises for future vehicle concepts based on a forecast of travel demand and on the analysis of the associated effects on the technical
realization, e.g. with regard to the design of vehicle architectures. For this purpose, findings from a future scenario of mobility based on National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data are linked to the vehicle concept design under the prerequisite of FAD, ODM and vehicle electrification. As the variables obtained in the initial NHTS data set have not been intended for the derivation of total vehicle design premises, a transformation has to be carried out within the overall methodology. The application is exemplified by a vehicle portfolio, taking into account additional vehicle concepts of a
scaled commercial FAD ODM fleet. Therefore the data basis has been evaluated as a frequency distribution with regard to the design premises under consideration.
Linking the findings of transport research with the technical design of vehicle concepts represents a new methodology in the early phase of product development in the automotive industry. For the determined vehicle concepts, basic design parameters are estimated. This is followed by an analysis of the corresponding technical realization in terms of the dimensioning of the vehicle architecture design. The developed methodlogy of evaluation is initially depicted on the basis of a current vehicle product portfolio. This paper focuses on the analysis of the results of the methodology applied with regard to the technical design of vehicle concepts. A more detailed description of the methodological approach will be part of further publications.

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