ÖVK-Publikation

Cradle-to-Grave Assessment of European Passenger Car Traffic Based on Actual Vehicle Movements and Derivation of Future Forecasts for Minimising Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Autoren

Dipl.-Ing. G. Lischka, Dr. W. Tober, Assoc.Prof. Dr. P. Hofmann, Institut für Fahrzeugantriebe und Automobiltechnik (IFA), Technische Universität Wien

Jahr

2026

Druckinfo

Eigenproduktion ÖVK

Zusammenfassung

European passenger car traffic plays a key role in the context of European climate targets, as numerous regulatory measures have so far failed to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Emission assessment models are becoming increasingly important for the necessary rapid change in trend, as they allow the analysis of future developments based on scenarios. However, a prerequisite for this is a realistic representation of European passenger car traffic. Existing models often contain emission-relevant simplifications due to the high complexity and the multitude of influencing factors, which limits the significance of the results.
For a holistic and realistic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions, the methodology applied in this paper is based on the combination of a dynamic life cycle analysis (LCA) with an emissions forecast. This allows emissions to be captured over the entire vehicle life cycle using a predominantly hourly time interval, thereby taking into account daily and seasonal variations in energy supply and vehicle usage in particular.
Based on this methodology, ten measures were examined with regard to their future emission reduction potential. It was found that measures including the vehicle fleet, in particular, show a significantly higher emission reduction potential than those affecting only new registrations. The results also show, however, that even a combined implementation of all the measures considered in this paper is not sufficient to achieve the European climate targets for passenger car traffic.

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