Fahrzeugkostenanalyse für Straßenfahrzeuge bis 2050

Autoren

S. Kraus, J. Reul, T. Grube, D. Stolten, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH

Zusammenfassung

Various technological options are available to meet the global climate protection goals and statutory fleet limits in the future. In addition to the possibility of defossilized liquid fuels for internal combustion engine drives, the electrification of the powertrains in their various forms represents a promising option. For the techno-economic evaluation of individual powertrain alternatives, the total cost of ownership analysis is a suitable methodological tool. Utilizing our newly developed python-based model, in this study we conduct a cost analysis for different road vehicle types through the year 2050. Manufacturing, maintenance and fuel costs are included. The component-based calculation of manufacturing costs is performed using a learning curve approach combined for commercial and passenger vehicles across all relevant vehicle segments. The component cost reduction especially for batteries, fuel cells, and hydrogen tanks, will influence future maintenance costs as well. The fuel costs include not only the production costs of the energy carriers, but also the costs of the necessary charging and refueling infrastructure. As vehicle energy demand is determined with the help of driving cycle simulations, additional mass due to batteries and hydrogen tanks, as well as their future development, is considered...

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