Sensible Pathways to Defossilised European Mobility in 2050 on a Cradle-to-Grave Basis – Scenarios Based on the FVV Fuels Studies IV and IV b

Authors

Dr.-Ing. U. Kramer, Ford-Werke GmbH, Cologne; Dr. rer. pol. D. Bothe, Dr. C. Gatzen, A. Pfannenschmidt, C. Baum, F. Schrogl, O. Mahmood, Frontier Economics Ltd., Cologne:

Year

2023

Print Info

Production/Publication ÖVK

Summary

“FVV Fuels Study IV” (published in 2021) provided a comprehensive analysis of different propulsion systems and energy pathways for the European transport sector, all of which are exclusively based on renewable energy sourcing through wind and solar power generation capacities, with regards to their overall infrastructure requirement, costs and associated “Well-to-Wheel” (WtW) green-house gas (GHG) emissions. The study concluded that overall cumulated GHG emissions vary much less across different technology pathways (e.g., electric vehicles vs. vehicles with combustion engines operated with carbon-neutral fuels) than typically expected. In fact, the “ramp-up” speed of deploying GHG-neutral mobility solutions is much more important than the choice of technologies itself, since the majority of GHG emissions is caused by the phase-out of the vehicle legacy fleet which is still operated with fossil energy carriers. Therefore, the faster defossilised vehicle operation can be introduced, the lower are the cumulated GHG emissions and thus the impact on climate change. Therefore, the achievable ramp-up potential is of upmost importance to meet the Paris climate targets.

In this context, “FVV Fuels Study IVb” further explores the achievable transition of the European road sector towards GHG-neutrality as early as possible with realistic technology ramp-ups.

As main conclusion, a favorable mix of GHG-neutral mobility pathways can speed up the transition to GHG-neutral mobility significantly. With such a mix – achievable under ideal regulatory conditions provided in 2023 - GHG-neutrality is projected to be achieved before the year 2040, whilst the adoption of some single technology scenarios, for example solely battery-electric-vehicle (BEV), cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 due to inevitable constraints (as e.g., electrical power grid extension). A battery-electric-vehicle single technology scenario is resulting in 39 % more GHG emissions until 2050 than necessary (vs. the GHG-optimised technology mix). Those 39 % are approximately equivalent to 8,700 Mio t CO2eq, which are approx. 13 times the annual EU27 + UK road transport GHG emissions in 2020. After 2050 further GHG will be emitted to complete the installation of the missing infrastructure to achieve 100 % defossilisation rate in the single technology BEV-scenario....

ISBN

978-3-9504969-2-5