Model-based Scenario for a Defossilized German Transport Sector

Authors

S. Kraus, Forschungszentrum Jülich (IEK-3)

Summary

As a segment of the energy system, the German transport sector must contribute to achieving the national target of greenhouse gas-neutrality by 2045. In the passenger car sector, the market ramp-up of electric transportation is already in full swing. However, questions arise as to how the transport sector as a whole will be able to achieve the goal of greenhouse gas-neutrality. Which drivetrains and fuels should be used in which means of transport, for instance? And from where should these fuels originate, given limited renewable energy resources, which could also serve to reduce greenhouse gases in other sectors? In an attempt to answer these questions, a cost optimal scenario based on a newly-developed, Python based optimization model is presented.

Apart from robust findings pertaining to the comprehensive electrification of road transport, our results show that synthetic fuels are part of the cost-optimal solution during a transitional phase. This is due to the temporally-constrained transformation of road transport fleets in favor of fully electric vehicles. Complementing the powertrain shift in vehicle stock, the resulting fuel demand shift will lead to increasing electricity and hydrogen demand of up to 173 TWh and 140 TWh by 2045. As an example of sector coupling, vehicle charging and hydrogen refueling networks, as well as renewable power generation, must be expanded to ensure the future supply. Overall, the scenario results underscore the need for near-term action to achieve the goal of greenhouse gas-neutrality in the transport sector by 2045.