The Energy Transition and Its Impact on the Future of Mobility and Fuel Systems

Authors

Karl Rose, former Chief Strategist, ADNOC, Abu Dhabi:

Year

2024

Print Info

Production/Publication ÖVK

Summary

The ongoing global energy transition is reshaping the landscape of mobility and fuel systems. For the first time, the world is on track for a peak in all fossil fuels before 2030.

As far as oil is concerned, the global demand for liquid fuels is dominated by changes in transport fuels. Global oil demand falls as use of oil products in transportation declines. Also increased energy security concerns, triggered by wars in Ukraine and Gaza, cause a faster shift towards a more local, lower-carbon mix, manifesting itself in a push for biofuels and a more rapid penetration of electric vehicles in the global fleet.

The impact of electric vehicles on oil demand becomes significant after 2030. Electric vehicles (EV)are expected to displace 1.5 Mb/d oil demand in 2030, 6.0 Mb/d in 2040, & 13.5 Mb/d in 2050. EV sales are dominated by Europe, North America & China while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will continue to play a significant role in the developing world, due to a rising middle class. Falling gasoline and diesel demand post-2030 will put pressure on margins and force expensive refineries to close, mainly in Europe & the US. The contribution of biofuels to road transport is expected to increase until 2030 and stay flat thereafter.
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ISBN

978-3-9504969-3-2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.62626/3r6c-46yy Copy link