30th International Vienna Motor Symposium
Shell Passenger Car Scenarios to 2030: Facts, Trends and Options for Sustainable Auto-Mobility in Germany
Authors
Dr. Jörg Adolf, Shell Deutschland Oil; Dipl.-Ing. Reno Huibers / Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke, Shell Global Solutions Deutschland GmbH, Hamburg
Year
2009
Print Info
Fortschritt-Berichte VDI, Reihe 12, Nr. 697
Summary
The 25th edition of the Shell Passenger Car Scenarios is characterised by transition. Following a uniform socioeconomic lead scenario, the present Passenger Car Study 2009 starts by analysing the possible consequences of demographic change on future auto-mobility in Germany. It tracks continuation of today’s car ownership and mileage patterns up to 2030, differentiating by age and sex. The state of auto-mobility in Germany will in future be characterised more strongly by women and by older people. The motorisation of the German population will continue to increase. Passenger car mileage will continue to rise till 2020, then towards 2030 it will drop back to today’s level.
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